Hurricane Campus Updates

Helpful Resources:

Guide to Hurricane Preparedness

Summary of Campus Hurricane Preparedness

How to Follow a Hurricane

Antigua Met Service, ABS Television/Radio – For frequent updates on Hurricane Irma

9/19/2017 – 5:30PM

I have just toured the campus with Mr. Solomon and his team.  We have been very fortunate in that we have sustained belittle damage from the storm.  There has been some minor flooding and some ceilings leaks that will need to be taken care of, so we will need to make some scheduling changes to get this done in a timely fashion.

We will have classes tomorrow (Wednesday)

We ask that if you do not have classes scheduled in the morning, that you delay coming to campus until the afternoon.  This will allow us time to clean up some of the water damage, that may continue overnight since we are predicting more rain.

  • Med 1 classes will go on as scheduled
  • Med 2 classes also on schedule 
  • Med 4 plan to be in classroom 6 in the morning (since 5 is requiring clean up)
  • Med 3 classroom 5 should be ready for you by the afternoon.

If you don’t need to be in class in the morning, please stay home to give us time to clean up campus.

We may get some more rain, but I think we are done with Tropical storm force winds.

Great work everyone.  

9/19/2017 – 2:00PM

Looking  the 2PM Update from the NHC, we have probably seen the worst we will get from Maria.  We may have another couple of hours of Tropical storm force winds and rain, ad we are sure to get some rain from the outer bands as she continues to move away from us.  Should be able to get a good look at campus and let everyone know about tomorrow in a few hours.  Till then everyone stay safe.

9/19/2017 – 5:00AM

5AM UPDATE FOR HURRICANE MARIA.  Well, it’s been a windy and rainy night.  Although we have some more to come, it looks like so far, we have escaped the destruction that we are hearing about on Dominica.  The storm will move slowly to the Northwest with its closest approach to Antigua being 83 miles in about 30 minutes from now.  We may continue to experience these Tropical storm force winds over the next few hours, so be vigilant in your safety precautions.  Everyone stay safe and help each other. 

9/18/2017 – 8:00PM

8pm update hurricane Maria.  Now a category 5 hurricane, its progress has slowed down some.  The hurricane force winds are close to the eye, which means as it will pass south of us by 85 miles we will, likely experience only Tropical storm force winds.  These should begin soon and continue through tomorrow afternoon.

Please continue to treat this storm as dangerous. The probabilities tell us we should not experience major hurricane winds, but it still can do damage.  Stay indoors be smart.  Take care of each other.

9/18/2017 – 5:00PM

5PM update on hurricane Maria. Currently a category 4 hurricane, it is strengthening. The hurricane force winds however are localized around its eye. We are still on a Tropical Storm Warning and are expecting Tropical storm force winds to begin around 8PM tonight. Chance of hurricane forced winds remains low. Point of closest approach to Antigua will be about 85 miles south of us at 0948 tomorrow morning. Conditions can change rapidly. You should remain inside during the storm. Be careful, stay calm, and help each other. 

Will continue to send updates as long as possible.

9/18/2017 – 2:00PM

2 PM Update on Hurricane Maria.  It looks like the risk of Hurricane force winds has decreased to about 2 percent over the next 24 hours.  The risk of Tropical Storm force winds however remains high at 76%.  We are already getting some blustery conditions on campus.   Campus will close this afternoon after classes are over, and we can expect some tropical Storm force winds to begin around 8PM tonight.  

Campus will remain closed through Tuesday and plan to open for classes on Wednesday.

Arrangements are being made for students in Lord Nelson or Studio 10 if they want to move, and any students are welcome to sit out the storm in the flex room if they are concerned about their living situation.  

Please review the Hurricane information we have sent for you, and follow those instructions.  

9/18/2017 – 10:30AM

The Storm Preparation Committee met this morning and made several decisions:

  1. Campus will close at 5PM today.
  2. Campus will remain closed through Tuesday.
  3. Plan to return for class on Wednesday,(unless otherwise notified).
  4. Students in Lord Nelson and Studio ten, will be re-located (if they desire).  You will be contacted about this shortly.
  5. The flex room will be open for students who are uncomfortable with heir living situation.

Please remember to follow the instructions in your Hurricane Preparation brochure.

Stay inside during the storm.

Remain calm.

Help each other.  

You guys are veterans now.  We will get through this together, just like before.

Updates will continue as long as we have service.

9/18/2017 – 5:00AM

5AM Update on Hurricane Maria 9/18/17

The 5AM update from NHC indicates some strengthening of the storm which may increase its category to 3, or 4.  The forecasted track however, has it moving south of us, and closest approach to Antigua is about 85 miles at around 0900 Tuesday morning .  We have a high percentage liklihood of getting Tropical Storm force winds, 90%, but a low probability, 20% of hurricaine force winds. 

Preparations for the storm remain the same (see previous updates).  The storm preparation committee will meet this morning to make any last minute changes.  Stay up with your email for further information.  

9/17/2017 – 5:00PM

5PM Update on Hurricane Maria 9/17/17.  Maria is now officially a Hurricane.  We (on Antigua) are no longer under a Hurricane Watch, but are now under a Tropical Storm Warning.  There is an 80% chance of Tropical Storm Force Winds most likely arriving after 8PM Monday.  The Storms closest approach to Antigua is now 79 miles, at 10AM Tuesday, and there is only a 30% chance of Hurricane Force Winds.

This is all good news, but we will still prepare for the storm.  No changes in our current preparation.  Stay tuned for further updates.

9/17/2017 – 2:00PM

2PM Update on Maria.  We remain under a Hurricane Watch in Antigua.  The storms closest approach to Antigua is about 70 miles.

Preparation plans at this time:

  1. Classes will be held as normal Monday.
  2. Campus will close by 5PM Monday.
  3. Students housed in Lord Nelson, and Studio 10, should be prepared to move after classes tomorrow.  You will receive specific instructions regarding this once we determine the move is necessary.
  4. The flex room will serve as a shelter for students who do not feel safe in their current housing. Be sure to bring water, food etc. with you should you come.
  5. Stay tuned in to your email for further updates.  Things can change and we want to keep you informed.

Students, faculty and staff performed admirably during the last storm.  I am certain you will again, and all will be well.  Stay inside during the storm, remain calm, help each other.

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 16.2N, 62.2W or about 69.8 miles (112.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 22 hours and 42 minutes from now (Tuesday, September 19 at 1:00PM AST).

Likelihood of arrival Tropical storm force winds is Monday after 8 PM

The likelihood of Hurricane force winds is about 30%

9/17/2017 – 5:00AM

NHC 5AM update forecast Maria becoming a hurricane later today.  The forecast track remains the same with the Point of Closest Approach to Antigua being 69 miles to our south at 1PM on Tues. 

Arrival of Tropical Storm force winds remains predicted after 8 PM on Monday.  By Tuesday we may see 125mph winds making Maria a Cat 2 hurricaine.

Please pay close attention to your email box, as we are likely to be making important decisions regarding preparation and campus closure at tomorrowmorning’s meeting.

I am confident that we will be prepared and come through this storm successfully.

9/16/2017 – 5:00PM

The 5PM NHC update indicates that we now have a Tropical Storm named Maria in the eastern Atlantic.  It is strengthening and current projected to be a Cat 1 hurricaine when it makes its closest approach to Antigua on Tues. at noon.  With the exception of preparing for the storm, we are not making decisions regarding classes yet.  For now you can assume Monday will be a normal day and we will have information about Tuesday and beyond as it comes available.  

At the moment at least this storm appears to be no where near as strong as Irma, or even Jose.  Will keep you up to date as more information becomes available.

9/16/2017 – 11:00AM

The NHC is forecasting a new storm (yet to be named) that’s track currently takes it close to Antigua. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Is likely to be a category 1 hurricane by Tuesday when it reaches our area. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for some of the Leeward Islands, although not Antigua at this time.  

Although we will track this storm carefully, and prepare for the possibility of a Cat 1 hurricane, we are not recommending closing the campus at this time. The Storm Preparation Committee will meet Monday morning and re-evaluate our response at that time.

We will continue to provide updates as the information develops.

9/09/2017 11:00AM

Great news!  The 11AM update from the NHC indicates the the Govt. of Antigua has cancelled the Tropical Storm watch for the island of Antigua.  Since the Hurricane watch was already cancelled, it appears that we have again averted disaster.

We plan to open the campus for students to study at 3 pm today., and usual weekend hours. Access to some areas will be limited, but if we need to we can open classrooms etc.

We will be working on transportation to campus, and you should expect a separate email regarding that in the near future.

We anticipate normal activity on the AUACOM campus by Monday, but we are not planning to change the class schedule.  Classes will begin Tuesday as was announced on Friday.

A big thank you to our entire AUA family.  Everyone has worked well together to make this happen. New we get down to the business of supporting our Barbuda evacuees, and get back to our medical education priorities.

9/09/2017 5:00AM

The 5AM update from NHC has dropped Antigua from the Hurricane Warning list.  We are still on a Hurricane watch, and still on a Tropical Storm warning.

The forecast is now predicting a 50% chance of Tropical Storm force winds.

We can still expect deterioration in the weather starting around 0800 today, and the storm’s closest approach is around 75 miles predicted at 1300 today.
Stay indoors!
Stay calm!
Help each other.

9/08/2017 5:00PM

Although the 5 PM forecast has Antigua out of the cone of uncertainty, we are under a Hurricane warning now.

__

The closest point of approach for Antigua is:

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.0N, 61.2W or about 71.3 miles (114.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 18 hours and 44 minutes from now (Saturday, September 9 at 12:42PM AST).

The forecast is calling for a 5-10% chance of Hurricane Force Winds.

Given that this is a Cat 4 storm, it seems reasonable to prepare in the same manner as we did for Irma.  
Recommendations are to remain inside during the storm, stay calm, help each other.
 
The VC Bird Airport will close at 9:30 tonight and is scheduled to open at 6:00 AM on Sunday.
 
Stay safe.

9/08/2017 11:00AM

The 11 AM forecast is calling Jose a Cat 4 hurricane now.  It’s closest forecasted point of approach for Antigua is now 62.4 miles.

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.9N, 61.2W or about 62.4 miles (100.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 1 hours and 11 minutes from now (Saturday, September 9 at 12:30PM AST).

The risk of Hurricane force winds have increased to 20%

AUA Campus is shutting down in an hour, but will continue to post updates as long as possible.

9/08/2017 5:00AM

This mornings NOAA information has us under a Tropical Storm Warning.  Although we remain under a Hurricane watch, the current forecast is predicting only a 5% chance of Hurricane force winds.  The prediction for Tropical force winds remains at about 70%.

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 61.1W or about 86.7 miles (139.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 8 hours and 53 minutes from now (Saturday, September 9 at 1:54PM AST).

Although Jose is not expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours, it remains a powerful Cat 3 Hurricaine with 120mph winds predicted as it passes to the north of us. Because of the uncertainty of the predictions, we are preparing on campus ad diligently as we did for Irma.  You should as well.  Do not let the good fortune we had with Irma lull you into complacency.

Our plans will be similar to those for Irma.

AUA Campus closes at noon today.

Unless otherwise notified, expect AUA campus opening at noon on Monday.

AUA classes are expected to begin on Tuesday.

As with Irma, the Flex room will be open for students who feel unsafe in their current living situation.  Please bring food and water, blankets etc. with you if you come to shelter on campus.  

Above all remain calm, stay indoors during the storm.  You guys are Hurricaine veterans now.  We got this.

More updates will follow.

9/07/2017 2:00PM

Classes will resume the following dates:

  • AICASA: Tomorrow, September 8, 2017
  • AUA: Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Please pay close attention to your email for further updates.

Jose continues to be predicted on a path that brings is close to Antigua.  The latest forecast brings it to around 72 miles from Antigua.

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.0N, 61.1W or about 71.5 miles (115.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 3 hours and 55 minutes from now (Saturday, September 9 at 2:54PM AST).

Tropical force winds are predicted to arrive in Antigua around 8 AM on Saturday. We are now under a Hurricane watch. 

 

The chance of Hurricane force winds for Antigua remains low at 10-20%  There is a better chance of Tropical Storm force winds at around 50%

9/07/2017 5:00AM

Several things have changed overnight.  

  1. The storms predicted path brings Antigua back into the cone of uncertainty although still on the edge.
  2. The storm’s strength is currently at 90 MPH and it is predicted to strengthen getting to 115 MPH as it passes Antigua to the north.
  3. Predictions now suggest that there is a 50% chance of Tropical Storm force winds and a 20% chance of Hurricane force winds on Saturday on Antigua.
  4. We will be meeting on campus to make appropriate plans and decisions regarding this storm.  

9/06/2017 5:00PM

The 5PM NOAA update reveals Jose turning a little further north which brings Antigua just outside the forecast cone.  This is good news but still too early to suggest we will not be impacted by it. 

In addition the likelihood of experiencing Hurricane force winds is now down to 0- 5%

 

9/06/2017 2:00PM

The 11 AM NHC update shows TS Jose increasing in intensity and will be classified as a hurricane by tomorrow.

The arrival for TS force winds is predicted for 8AM Saturday.  It is still too early to predict the exact course or intensity of this storm, but we will prepare as if it will impact us and monitor its progress.

9/06/2017 12:00PM

The official “all clear” has been given by the government, so it is officially considered to be safe to be out and about now.  Please remain cautious in driving through water, watch for downed power lines, debris in the roads.  We are still experiencing some thunderstorms, so please use common sense when not in sheltered areas.

The airport is opening at 2 PM.  Check with your carrier regarding flight status.

Most importantly, it appears that AUA got through the storm with no significant injuries.

The damage to campus appears to have been mostly cosmetic. 

Students faculty and staff have worked together to make this a successful and safe weather emergency.  You all deserve the credit for doing what needed to be done, when it needed to be done.  I am proud to be associated with this group.

There is still cleanup work to be done.

While the hurricane and tropical storm force winds have subsided, rain showers are still in our area. Flashflood warnings have been issued for parts of the island, until 3p.m. today. That warning may be extended depending on the severity of the showers. Therefore please use extreme caution if you must leave your home.

The VC Bird International Airport will reopen at 2pm today for clean up. Airport Administration will not return to office until tomorrow. Check with your airlines for specific flight times.

While our campus remains closed, all internet and telephone services are offline. It is not advisable for you to return to campus at this point due to clean up efforts. If you must leave your home, the flexroom is available. However, I reiterate, there is NO internet access available on campus.

If you loose data/internet service, you can also get campus updates at 484-8888.

Our current plan is to begin classes on Monday Sept. Sept. 11, 2017.

Students will receive a separate email regarding schedules, exams etc.  

This will be the last Hurricane Irma update.  Stay tuned for Hurricane Jose updates beginning today.  

9/06/2017 5:00AM

Looking outside and at the weather sites It appears that the worst is over. Irma is now north of us in Antigua, although it appears that Barbuda took a direct hit.  

Campus has sustained minimal damage (that we can see in the dark).  More on that when the sun is up.

Students on island please check in by email when you get service to let us know you are ok.

It is still pretty windy outside so use caution in leaving your home. We do not yet know the condition of the roads but expect downed trees and power lines so be very cautious.  

My cell service has been pretty spotty and we do not have wireless internet on campus yet so lack of communication does not necessarily mean something bad has happened.  

So far, we have been very fortunate. More news to come.

9/05/2017 5:00PM

The 5 PM update continues to show severe weather coming our way.  Wind gusts as high as 180-185MPH with a 90% probability of hurricane force winds.

Irma will come within 31.6 miles of Antigua at 4:12 AM tomorrow.  

Right now it is very windy here, and raining hard.  So far campus seems to be holding up well, although I am anticipating losing power soon.

STAY INSIDE!

Will continue to provide updates as able.

9/05/2017 11:00AM

At 11AM, the storm looks a bit worse, with 180mph winds.  Closest approach to Antigua below

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.6N, 61.6W or about 37.2 miles (59.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storym will be at that location is in about 17 hours and 39 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 4:48AM AST).

It seems reasonable to assume we will be seeing Hurricane force winds early Wednesday morning.  

As of now we are on campus, Power is down, but wifi is still working.  We are anticipating the servers being shut down in the next couple of hours.  

Although it is windy outside, there is no rain yet, and Tropical force winds are still not predicted before 8PM tonight.  

Last minute preparations are underway. 

Be smart, stay indoors, take care of each other.

US State department registration for US citizens:

https://step.state.gov/step/

For Canadians:

https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/registration 

9/05/2017 10:00AM

Students,

As you may have already heard NOAA has upgraded Irma to a Cat 5 storm. This heightens the importance of your preparation and resolve to follow the advice given in the pamphlets that we have sent you. The AUA managed housing remains the safest place for you to be. For those of you who are not in AUA managed housing, please re-evaluate the structural safety of your home. Well built, concrete block homes are probably safe. If you have doubts about the safety of your home, you may come to campus. We are making the Flex room available during the storm. Should you decide to come to campus, please come before 6PM. We still anticipate the weather deteriorating around 8PM today. If you come to campus, please bring food and water to last at least couple of days. We will try to provide food and drink supplements for you, but do not have sufficient quantities should many people choose to come.

You will be limited to the flex room because of safety concerns. There will be no power, or Wifi, during the storm. These will be brought back up as soon as possible after the storm, but may be delayed because of infrastructure damage. Unfortunately we cannot allow any pets in the flex room.  

The path of the storm still has us on the edge of the storm and we are expecting winds that are not of the Cat 5 power. This of course could change in the coming hours.  

Please remember to stay indoors. Do not try to leave your home or shelter during the storm itself.  It will be more dangerous to travel during that time than to stay wherever you are.  

So the choice you need to make is to stay where you are or come here on campus. You should make that choice based on your best assessment of the safety of the place you are living. If it appears to be safe, you are probably better off staying where you are.  If it is not, then come to campus. While we are not certain it will be safe here for a Cat 5 hurricane, we have been told the building was originally built to those specifications.  Some faculty, (at least myself and Dr, Kim Mallin) will be here on campus through the storm.

Mr. Simon is in contact with the US Embassy in Barbados regarding potential assistance should damage from the storm be bad enough to warrant evacuation.  

Stay calm, Stay safe, help each other.

9/05/2017 5:00AM

Irma’s closest approach to Antigua:

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.7N, 61.6W or about 43.7 miles (70.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, and 25 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 5:18AM AST).

Now a Cat 4 storm with winds up to 150 mph. 

We can expect Tropical Storm force winds around 8 pm today.

Although less likely (20-30%) hurricane force winds may occur late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Finish any storm prep before 8 PM

Please stay inside during the storm

Stay calm, help each other

Will continue to provide updates as long as possible.  

9/04/2017 11:00PM

We continue to be on a hurricane watch with weather predicted to beginning to deteriorate Tuesday evening.  

Predictions for the position of the storm on arrival Wednesday are closer than 12 hours ago.

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.9N, 61.5W or about 56.5 miles (90.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 1 hours and 10 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 6:18AM AST).

NOAA is predicting the following wind expectation as follows

For Hurricane force winds it looks like 20-40% likelihood

For tropical storm force winds the prediction is higher; 70-80% chance

The Storm Peparation Committee met yesterday afternoon, and preparations for this storm are well underway. I have every confidence that we will be as prepared as possible to meet Irma.  Updates will continue as long as we have information and the ability to disperse it.

9/04/2017 8:00PM

The 8PM advisory appears to be no different than the 5PM.  We are still anticipating the onset of Tropical force winds in about 24 hours from now (8:00 PM Tues.)

NOAA is predicting a 30-40% chance of Hurricane force winds beginning early on Wednesday.

Information discussed at meetings with students today;

  1. Students residing in Lord Nelson housing should come to campus on Tues AM to be reassigned and transported to Serendipity housing.
  2. Classes are canceled for Tues. and Wed.  Campus will close at noon on Tues.  and re-open when it is safe to do so.
  3. Students are reminded to follow the suggestions in the Hurricane information pamphlets that were handed out at orientation and re-sent as PDFs in your email a few days ago.
  4. Students are reminded to stay indoors during the storm.
  5. Emergency Response Team members will be assigned to Student housing units with first aid equipment.  These team members will also be responsible for communicating the conditions to the campus when possible.
  6. Students should anticipate a loss of power and internet use at least through the time of the storm and possibly longer.
  7. Faculty members have been assigned areas with students living in private housing to look in on students and be available for assistance and to communicate with campus regarding conditions.
  8. Campus will remain available as a last resort shelter for students needing shelter.  The SGA has sent all students a list of community shelters if needed.

We will continue to provide updates as long as possible.  Please stay inside during the storm, it is the safest place to be.  Stay calm and take care of each other.

9/04/2017 11:00AM

We are now under a Hurricane Warning per NOAA.

It looks like we can expect Tropical Storm force winds by around 8 PM Tomorrow.

Campus will be closed at noon tomorrow.

Stay inside during the storm.

Take care of one another.

Stay safe.

9/04/2017 5:00AM

The 5AM update shows Irma to  be predicted closest approach to Antigua to be a bit closer than 12 hours ago.

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.9N, 61.5W or about 56.5 miles (90.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, and 42 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 6:18AM AST).

Weather is likely to begin deteriorating Tuesday afternoon.  

NOAA is predicting the likelihood of Tropical Storm fore winds at 70-80% for Antigua.

Hurricane force winds are less likely at 20-40%

The Storm Preparation Committee met yesterday and preparations for the storm are ongoing.  I have every confidence that we will be prepared for Irma’s visit.  Updates will continue as new information arrives.

9/03/2017 5:00PM

Officially under a hurricane watch now.

The position of the closest distance from the storm has actually increased though from 70 miles to 90 miles at 0712 on Wednesday morning.  This is good news, and may reduce the impact of the storm.

Preparations on campus continue, and we want to meet with students tomorrow to give instructions and answer questions.

Mandatory meetings for students on Campus for tomorrow Monday Sept 4, 2017

12:00-12:45 Med1, Med 3 Flex room

1:00-1:45 Med 2, Med 4, BSIC, Flex room

Stay calm, help each other.

9/03/2017 11:00AM

The 11AM update shows Irma coming a little closer than the 5AM

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.1N, 61.5W or about 70.7 miles (113.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 22 hours and 14 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 9:30AM AST).

Little else has changed. Classes will still be held tomorrow.  We will likely want to meet with you at sometime tomorrow so please pay close attention to your email in order that we can do so.

9/03/2017 5:00AM

Over the last 24 hours the forecast for Irma has come closer to Antigua.  The prediction for closest approach is now 73.5 miles at around 8 AM on Wednesday.

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.1N, 61.3W or about 73.5 miles (118.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 3 days, 2 hours and 49 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 8:18AM AST).

Looking at the current predictions, it appears that the weather should begin to deteriorate Tues. evening, getting worse through Tues night, into Wednesday.  The storm is now classified as a Category 3 hurricane.  It may intensify over the next 72 hours.  We will monitor the situation and keep you informed.

Here’s what you can expect with regard to schedules:

  1. Classes will be held on Monday
  2. On Monday morning University leadership will make firm decisions about closing .
  3. We will plan to speak with each class on Monday to give instructions and answer questions.
  4. For those of you worrying about exam dates, we are focused on safety and communication at the moment. Decisions about exams will come afterward.

Above all, remain calm.  We will get through this together, by working together and helping each other.

9/02/2017 5:00PM

The 5 PM update.  In terms of track, the current prediction is that the center of the storm will pass 132 miles north of Antigua at 10AM on Wednesday.  The NOAA wind predictions are suggesting a 37% probability of 34kt winds, 18% for 50kt winds and 10% for 64 kt winds on Tues to Wed. AM.  For Wed to Thurs. it’s 40% for 34kt, 19% for 50kt, and 12% for 64kt winds.

I anticipate our making decisions about classes etc for Tuesday and Wednesday, on Monday unless things change before that.  Be sure to check you email frequently so you don’t miss announcements. For now, plan on classes on Monday as scheduled.

9/02/2017 11:00AM – Dr. Mallin’s message to students

The 11 AM update is in.  No significant change.  The storm is compact (about 60 nautical miles). At this point it is predicted to pass about 160 nautical miles north of Antigua.  This does not mean we won’t have any inclement weather, and as I have said before, these things can change.

People are getting nervous, and that is understandable.  At this point we have things under control and preparations are underway.  Please stay tuned to your email. Stay safe. Be prepared.

9/02/2017 5:45AM- Dr. Mallin’s message to students

No surprises this morning. The computer models still keep us at the edge of this storm, and it is still too early to tell what we can expect on Wednesday. I remain optimistic however for three reasons.

  1. The forecast has not worsened ( if anything it is slightly improved.
  2. Our campus team is experienced and is already putting our storm plan into effect.
  3. Because optimism is a choice, and I choose to be optimistic.

Here are the 5AM computer models:

Here is a new graphic from NOAA that describes the chance of getting tropical force winds (39+mph) and when they are likely to arrive.  If you look at Antigua, you can see that we have a 30-40% chance of getting tropical storm force winds beginning Tues night into Wednesday.

It is still too early to tell anything for sure.  More will be revealed over the next few days. On campus we are preparing for severe weather.  You should too.  Please use the pamphlets I sent yesterday as a guide.  Prepare for the worst and pray for the best.  Take care of each other.

9/01/2017 – Dr. Mallin’s message to students

Dear Students,

First the good news. Here are the most recent computer models on Hurricane Irma.

As you can see, all but one of these models suggest the storm will mostly go north of us. The bad news of course, is that at 5 days out from reaching us, the predictive value of these models is less than certain.  

However, since the preponderance of evidence is suggesting that we will not take a direct hit from this storm, added to the obvious disruption of canceling classes, exams etc. we have decided, for the time being, that we are not canceling classes or exams for next week.  We will be monitoring the situation on an hourly basis, and should the circumstances warrant, we will respond appropriately and let you know immediately should we do so.  We will keep you updated with regard to this situation at least on a daily basis. Please stay in close contact with your email in order that you have the latest information. You will receive information from The Office of Student Services with regard to housing issues, and communication before, during and after the storm.

You should notice that on campus, we are taking appropriate measures to prepare for the possibility that we will have a significant storm.  We recommend that you review the pamphlet I sent by email yesterday (and I have attached here as well) and do the same.  Preparation is the wisest way to deal with the current situation. 

Finally, for those of you who have decided to leave the island for safety concerns, please see the following:

  1. Although a formal LOA will not be needed, you must contact Dr. Sanii’s office and let them know you are leaving. This is a requirement for immigration as well as essential for us to have knowledge of where our students are in a potential emergency.
  2. Classes and exams may or may not be cancelled, depending on the storms path.  Students who appropriately notify The office of Student Affairs of their leaving the island will be eligible for a make up examination should they miss one.  If you are not on that list, you will not be eligible for a make up (no exceptions). 
  3. If you miss classes for the above reasons, there will be no professionalism penalty, however unless classes are canceled, there will be no make up for classes missed.

Lastly, please be cautious.  These storms can indeed be deadly.  Going outside during a major hurricane is not a wise choice. Emergency numbers are in the attached pamphlets.  Take care of yourselves and each other.  We will get through this together.

8/31/2017 – Update to students from Dr. Mallin, Executive Dean

It’s hurricane season, and by now most of you know that Irma is out there and the 5 day forecast has it aimed close to Antigua, potentially hitting on Wed. Sept 6.  Many of you probably also know that the 5 day forecast is not especially reliable, and  a great deal can happen with a storm like this that is not forecast between now and Wed.  

We have a Storm preparedness committee that will be meeting tomorrow morning to make some decisions based on the information we can gather between now and then.  Those of us who have been here a while know that we are experienced in preparing for these storms and will make appropriate decisions regarding classes, school closure, and safety precautions. 

By tomorrow afternoon, we will communicate many of those decisions to you, and answer any questions you may have.   Please pay close attention to your email account as that will be our best way of getting information to you about the storm and about school.  Stay calm.  We will get through this together.